FY 2021 Educational Facilities Master Plan

WCBOE Enrollment and Capacity Analysis

Figure 1

30,000 FOOT VIEW Figure 1 displays system wide enrollments over the past seven years plus projects out the next ten. This higher level view indicates that overall enrollments will continue to grow and in 2019 they have out paced current state rated capacity (SRC). While this view is important, it does not allow us to see how the individual school groupings will be affected. Figure 2 takes the data from figure 1 and disseminates it across the three educational levels (Elementary, Middle & High). The yellow highlighted circle indicates an enrollment “bubble” that is making its way through the entire system. The increased enrollment bubble started in the elementary schools around 2012. Although the bubble exited in 2018, the projected enrollments for the elementary schools are predicted to continue to increase. Projected birth rates from the State suggest that another "bubble" may hit our elementary schools starting in 2023. In 2018 the enrollment bubble began to affect the middle schools. The impact has increased the total number of middle schoolers by almost 150 students in 2019 with a projected continued increase in 2020 and 2021. While the number is drastic, the graph shows that the total enrollments will not surpass the total available SRC. During FY19, WCBOE partook in a enrollment balancing effort to ensure the "bubble" is more evenly distributed between the middle schools in order to keep each school under capacity. In reviewing the individual school report cards it is apparent that this effort succeeded.

Wicomico County Public Schools Educational Facilities Master Plan FY 2021

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