FY 2022 Educational Facilities Master Plan

6.1

WCBOE ENROLLMENT & CAPACITY ANALYSIS

System Wide Enrollment Trends Past 7 | Current | Projected 10

Figure 1

30,000 FOOT VIEW Figure 1 displays system wide enrollments over the past seven years plus projects out the next ten. This higher level view clearly shows the impact of COVID on enrollment in 2020 but indicates that overall enrollments are anticipated to return to pre-COVID levels with the return of students to 5 days a week inperson instruction and will quickly out pace current state reated capacity (SRC). While this view is important, it does not allow us to see how the individual school groupings will be affected. Figure 2 takes the data from figure 1 and disseminates it across the three educational levels (Elementary, Middle & High). The yellow highlighted circle indicates an enrollment “bubble” that is making its way through the entire system. The increased enrollment bubble started in the elementary schools around 2012. The bubble exited in 2018 but State birth rates were indicating a second potential "bubble" entering elementary schools starting in 2023. Data shows a slight increase but the States review of 2020 preliminary birth data may show lower births during the pandemic, leading to lower school enrollment projections in future years. In 2018 the enrollment bubble began to affect the middle schools. The impact has increased the total number of middle schoolers by almost 150 students in 2019. Due to lower enrollments across all educational levels in 2020 attributed to COVID, data does not show the increase in 2020 but it is anticipated to return in 2021. While the initial increased number students was drastic, the graph shows that the total enrollments will not surpass the total available SRC. During FY19, WCBOE partook in a enrollment balancing effort to ensure the "bubble" is more evenly distributed between the middle schools in order to keep each school under capacity. In reviewing the individual school report cards it is apparent that this effort succeeded.

Wicomico County Public Schools Educational Facilities Master Plan FY 2022

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